A new public forecasting model developed by Google and the Harvard Global Health Institute predicts 97 deaths in Wisconsin in the next two weeks and 15,000 new COVID-19 cases. These numbers are based on an SEIR model, which makes predictions based on the time and course of infections moving through susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered stages of the disease. It uses historical data. An extensive user guide explains the model and ways that the data can be accessed by researchers and the public. Note that a Google account is required to access the database. 

This model would predict a lower mortality rate in Wisconsin than in the previous 14-day period, but an increase in the infection rate (which does not seem out of line with the current trends). 

Locally the model predicts 

Dunn County 0 Deaths - 32 new cases - 1 hospitalized

Chippewa County 1 death - 79 new cases - 2 hospitalized

Eau Claire County 1 death - 168 new cases - 3 hospitalized

We will continue to check in with this model over time to see how accurately it predicts the trends of infections and death. The model is very bad news for Milwaukee County in particular, where it predicts 4358 new cases, 26 deaths, and a daily peak of 93 hospitalizations from August 1-14.

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Steve Hanson
About

Steve is a web designer and recently retired from running the hosting and development company Cruiskeen Consulting LLC. Cruiskeen Consulting LLC is the parent company of Wis.Community, and publication of this site continues after his retirement.

Steve is a member of LION Publishers and the Local Media Consortium, is active in Health Dunn Right, and is vice-president of the League of Women Voters of the greater Chippewa Valley

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